3rd Biennial Meeting of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society (iEMSs)

Summit on Environmental Modelling and Software
Burlington, Vermont
July 9-13, 2006

Title: Peta-scale climate modeling: Biogeochemical and financial feedbacks

Authors: David Erickson, Robert Oglesby, Scott Elliott, and Forrest Hoffman

Abstract: Several new climate, carbon and biogeochemical modeling results that require multi-Tera flop computational resources will be discussed within the context of climate science and high performance computing. A new fully coupled Earth system model, in both the biogeochemical and physical sense, that specifically tracks CO2 and dimethyl sulfide exchange between the ocean, land and atmosphere systems will be described. As an example of the utility of next generation Earth system models, a series of specific biogeochemical processes and feedbacks in the climate system are examined. A multi-variate clustering algorithm to assess terrestrial ecosystem niche evolution in a warming greenhouse world will be presented. Essentially, the spatial distribution of concurrent changes in temperature, precipitation, radiation and soil moisture drive ecosystem niche evolution in complex and interactive ways. Using climate prediction simulations for 1870-2100, ecosystem niche evolution at mid-high latitudes will be presented. Oceanic applications of this new clustering technique will be explored. Consistent with the theme of fully coupled, comprehensive Earth system model creation, a highly detailed numerical model of energy usage is grafted to a GCM. This energy use and resource allocation model is driven with GCM simulated climate variables from 2000-2025 so as to predict the financial impacts and feedbacks of global warming.

Research partially sponsored by the 1) Climate Change Research Division (CCRD) of the Office of Biological and Environmental Research (OBER), and 2) Mathematical, Information, and Computational Sciences (MICS) Division of the Office of Advanced Scientific Computing Research (OASCR) within the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science (SC). This research used resources of the National Center for Computational Science (NCCS) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) which is managed by UT-Battelle, LLC, for the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC05-00OR22725. The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is operated by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) and receives research funding primarily from the National Science Foundation (NSF).